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Subscribe to this list via RSS Blog posts tagged in Trends

Posted by in News

Exclusively on Seeking Alpha

Published June 9, 2016

By J. André Weisbrod


·         After a fearful swoon at the beginning of the year, most stock markets are back in positive territory.

·         While we did some buying and increased equity exposure during the dip, we were not confident enough to be aggressive.

·         Multiple unsuccessful attempts to forge new highs over the past year indicate that an aging bull may be at or near its end.

·         Economic conditions are mixed and at times data is confusing or contradictory.

·         Overall market valuations are above average and possibly in warning territory.

·         Large volume computer-generated trading has turned the stock market into a rigged casino that is against traditional fundamental investing.

·         The huge expansion of ETFs and the trend toward “robo” investing create new market influences that could actually increase risk and hurt investors.

·         Three of the forces holding up stocks up are suspect.  One could evaporate with a negative event or a funky algorithm gone haywire.  The second compounds the first and creates greater future risk.  The third is a ruse, plain and simple.

·         There may be nuts out there, but they might not be ones even a seeing squirrel might like.

·         This is a time to err on the conservative side.


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The Only Thing to Fear…

Monday, January 18, 2016
By J. André Weisbrod

“The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”  This is the famous quote from Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s 1932 inaugural address.  With stock markets retreating amid global uncertainties, here are some considerations:

·         The two causes of the biggest financial mistakes are fear and greed.

·         The stock market loses value approximately three out of every ten years.  Over the past 10 years, only one was a complete loser, 2008.  2015 was a bit of a mix, but on balance a loser.  Will 2016 end up a loser?  Or will it be one of those years that see losses during the year but recover by the end?

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Posted by in News

2016 Economic and Investment Outlook

January 14, 2016 

By: J. André Weisbrod



  • Predictions can be a fool’s errand.  The more variables, the more difficult it is to forecast outcomes.  That said…

  • Variables are legion and include: Overall economic growth and company profits; employment; International economies; oil prices; inflation; debt; politics; terrorism;

  • Though somewhat of a toss-up, I will suggest the probability for 2016 is for a modestly positive year for stocks and another flat or losing year for bonds.

  • The above bullets were written January 4, and I have preserved them intact.  Has anything changed except for China and the price of stocks?  Yes and no.  The China fiasco points out that we are vulnerable to global economic events as much or more than ever.  This is truly an interlinked and interdependent planet.  The third bullet, though, remains a statement I can live with.  A “toss-up.”

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2015 - The Investment Year in Review

January 8, 2016

By: J. André Weisbrod


·         2015 was a disappointing year, ending with a whimper.   Santa failed to show up.

·         2015 saw high volatility.

·         Except for large consumer companies, no major category experienced close to an average long-term return, though a few were modestly positive.  Most categories were well under average and over half were down for the year.

·         The best major sectors of the S&P 500 were Consumer, Health Care, Technology and Telecomm while the worst were Energy, Materials, Utilities and Industrials. 

·         Overall the S&P 500 was up 1.3%, but an equal-weighted S&P 500 actual lost 2.2%. 

·         Of interest is that equal weight indexes, which have generally outperformed the more quoted capital weight indexes over the past 15 years, mostly underperformed the capital weighted indexes the past couple years.  The equal weight S&P 500 returned -2.2% (3.5% less than the capital weighted index) in 2015.  We must remember that indexes do not have expenses.  This explains at least in part why professional managers have had trouble meeting or beating the S&P 500 the last couple years.  (See discussion and tables.)

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On December 31 Andre Weisbrod discussed the 2015 markets and commented on the New Year.   For some reason the second segment has not yet been posted.  Look for his detailed evaluation blog later today. 

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Record Close, Retiree Health Care Costs, Closing Credit Cards, Millennials Overwhelmed by Debt, Where Did the Young Workers Go, Inflation Risks Chain Reaction :Articles and Information from Other Sources

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Current Economic Trends
April 24, 2014

Interest rates, Inflation, Quantitative Easing Taper, Federal Debt, Household Debt, Bull Market, Unemployment, Jobless Claims, Labor Force Participation, Population Growth, Economic Hubs, Middle East Societal Tensions, Income Disparity, Cyber Threats, Lack of Values in Leadership, Growth of Megacities, On Line Misinformation

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